G11: Beginning of Cold War 2.0?
On May 29th 2020, news reports suggested that the United Kingdom is looking to build an alliance of ten democracies. The alliance will comprise of the G7 countries (US, UK, Canada, Japan, France, Germany and Italy) and three other democracies: India, Australia and South Korea. According to the reports, the purpose behind building this coalition is to stem the rising Chinese influence in the telecom sector, especially in the field of 5G internet. The proposal involves the close collaboration between the aforementioned countries so as to create alternative suppliers of 5G internet and avoid reliance on Chinese companies. PM Johnson’s proposal has resonated with US President Donald Trump who has gone one step further and proposed an expansion of G7 to G11 with Russia being added to the list as well.[1]
The difference in the two approaches is stark. While Johnson wishes to keep this alliance limited to the telecom sector, Trump is thinking far more on strategic lines. He sees this as a grand coalition of democracies who are mindful of the rules based order and are prepared to take on authoritarian China. In other words, Trump seems ready to up the ante against the Chinese and he is expecting the same from the others. But how did we reach here? Why the sudden escalation? Why does Trump, who spent the better part of his Presidency peddling isolationist foreign policy and complaining about being “taken for a ride” by allies, suddenly feel the need to do so?
The 5G Conundrum
China over the years has demonstrated a remarkable growth in technology and innovation. It is undeniable that the country is now a force to be reckoned with regards to 5G technology. The national government has come up with several top down initiatives that has assisted companies in creating an entire ecosystem: R&D, equipment, network, terminals and application development. It is estimated that within China, 5G connections will reach 570 million people by 2025, which would be equal to 40% of the total global connections.[2]
Make no mistake, the Chinese are about to take over the international market as well. Chinese companies like Huawei have been given a tacit nod by the European Union, albeit with some vague warnings about security. India too, has allowed Huawei the permission to run 5G trials in the country. This has alarmed countries like UK, which recently left the European Union. Why? Well, for starters, Chinese traders don’t exactly play fair. They utilise state support in removing competitors from its path. Just look at the case of recently rejected Bagomoyo Port deal in Tanzania. It was a $10 billion deal in which the Chinese would, after the construction, get the port at lease for a period of 99 years. But the catch is, Tanzanian sovereign government shall have no say over which companies invest and which ships dock in the port. Not only that, no port shall be constructed upto Tanga, which is another coastal city, 273 kms North of Bagomoyo. The deal was so outrageous that President Magufuli quipped “Only a drunkard could accept these terms”.[3]
This sort of arm twisting perhaps works on newly industrialised countries but the concern of developed countries is mostly security oriented. The reason: National Intelligence Law passed by the Chinese government in 2018. Article 7 of the law states:
“Any organization or citizen shall support, assist and cooperate with the state intelligence work in accordance with the law, and keep the secrets of the national intelligence work known to the public.”
Let’s understand the significance of this article. Imagine if the Indian Parliament mandates all of its citizens and organisations to work as part of the nation’s intelligence gathering apparatus. So if Reliance Jio opens a branch in the UK, the company is mandated by law to send information, even classified information back home to the government.This takes threat of espionage to a whole different level. In this day and age of fifth generation info wars, this could be a game changer that could seriously tilt the balance of power towards the Chinese.
Utilising the COVID crisis
The spread of COVID-19 virus, which emerged from the Chinese province of Wuhan, has enraged the entire western world. Up till now, the US has seen 112,000 deaths, the UK 40,452 and in Italy 33, 899. However, even in times of such crisis, games of geopolitics don’t go away. Much to the West’s chagrin, China still controls global supply chain. But it is optimistic that the anger against China, especially in the developed world will help it reclaim the supply chains.
A World Economic Forum Report states that China has suffered a week on week drop of 56% since mid February. While it has made attempts to reopen its factories again, the stagnation is visible even after the reduction of stringent lockdown measures. As an export oriented economy (15% of total GDP), it relies on its buyers opening up their markets. But with most of its customers on lockdown, this is not going to happen anytime soon. [4]
The West too, is looking forward to diversify its supplies. Too much reliance, especially in the field of medicine has cost it valuable time. For example: the UK recently saw a shortage of paracetamol tablets, owing to India’s temporary ban on the drug’s exports. India lifted the ban temporarily only after a request was made.
Will India knuckle up?
Indian experts vary on how China perceives India. There are hawks who believe China sees India as serious competitor and will utilise all tricks in the bag to impede India’s rise. China will not hesitate to utilise its military superiority to “show India its place” in the hierarchy of Asian powers. Some, like Lt General Syed Ata Hasnain, have a different opinion. He believes that the Chinese approach vis a vis India is that of “No War, no Peace”.[5] The Chinese are insecure about India, but mostly on the naval front. The Malacca strait is a bottleneck that the Indian Navy can utilise in times of war. That is a major reason for China’s aggressive naval activities in the South China Sea as well.
So, is India going to join a multi front anti China coalition? It seems highly unlikely that India would take a public posture against China while being part of a NATO-esque alliance. The reason behind this lies in an Indian foreign policy facet that goes back to the post World War II years. India, during its days at the Non Aligned Movement, became a champion proponent of the “North-South Divide” theory.
The theory holds that there are two camps in the world a) the North b) the South. The countries of the global North are those that are heavily industrialised, have modern technology, enjoy a functioning rule of law and largely urbanised. The global South on the other hand comprises of countries that were former colonies of the North, are largely agricultural, weak rule of law with mostly feudal social structures and lack of modern technology. The countries of the North have a well established banking system, through which they control the spread of finance capital throughout the South. This allows the former a lot of leverage over the latter.
One might argue, that since the end of Cold War, India has more or less abandoned the NAM bandwagon. While that is true, a part of Sino Indian relations is still guided by the North-South dynamic. In 2001, the Doha Developmental Round (in short: Doha Round) had begun and it had become a stalemate between the developing and developed world. The developed camp comprised of the US, Japan, Canada and EU had accused the developing camp, of India, China, Brazil and South Africa of not opening up its agricultural markets. Both India and China actively cooperated in bringing down the Doha Round as the West wanted the two countries to lower their agricultural tariffs. In the Paris Agreement of 2016, once again India and China cooperated as both unanimously agreed that the historical responsibility of reducing greenhouse gases lies on the West and not the developing world. It allowed both India and Chinese to make vague promises about reducing their carbon emissions while the West had to set up precise timelines.
With the recent Chinese aggression at the LAC and the rapid deployment of troops and war equipment from both sides, things might start to change. After all, territorial integrity comes first for any state, trade interests later. Any government that visibly cowers down in front of enemy aggression has little chance of retaining power. So will India change track? The international order is already beckoning towards another Cold War that this time, will force India to take sides. The open Chinese hostility that threatens our territory on one hand and on the other, spread of western capital that will require us to open up markets where don’t want to. A tight rope needs to be walked upon and one can only hope the government is ready for it.
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